ABSTRACT
It is uncertain to which extent antibody and T-cell responses after vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are associated with reduced risk of breakthrough infection and whether their measurement enhances risk prediction. We conducted a phase-4 open-label clinical trial in the pre-omicron era, enrolling 2,760 individuals aged [≥]16 years 35{+/-}8 days after having received the second dose of BNT162b2 (baseline 15-21 May 2021). Over a median 5.9-month of follow-up, we identified incident SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections using weekly antigen tests, a confirmatory PCR test, and/or serological evidence for incident infection. We quantified relative risks adjusted for age, sex, and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection for different immunological parameters and assessed improvements in risk discrimination. In contrast to the T-cell response, higher plasma levels of binding antibodies and antibodies in a surrogate neutralization assay were associated with reduced risk of breakthrough infection. Furthermore, assessment of anti-spike IgG levels enhanced prediction of breakthrough infection and may therefore be a suitable measurable correlate of protection in practice.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Breakthrough PainABSTRACT
Background: In early March 2020, a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the ski resort Ischgl in Austria initiated the spread of SARS-CoV-2 throughout Austria and Northern Europe. In a cross-sectional study, we found that the seroprevalence in the adult population of Ischgl had reached 45% by the end of April. To answer the question of how long immunity persists and what effect this high-level immunity had on virus transmission, we performed a follow-up study in early November, 2020. Methods: Of the 1259 adults that participated in the baseline study, 801 could be included in the follow-up. The study involved the analysis of binding and neutralizing antibodies and T cell responses. In addition, the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Ischgl was compared to the incidence in similar municipalities in Tyrol throughout 2020. Findings: For the 801 individuals that participated in both studies, the seroprevalence declined from 51.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 47.9 - 54.9) to 45.4% (95% CI 42.0 - 49.0). Median antibody concentrations dropped considerably but antibody avidity increased. T cell responses were analysed in 93 cases, including all 4 formerly seropositive cases that had lost antibodies in all assays, three of which still had detectable T cell memory. In addition, the incidence in the second COVID-19 wave that hit Austria in November 2020, was significantly lower in Ischgl than in comparable municipalities in Tyrol or the rest of Austria. Interpretation: This study has important implications as it shows that although antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 declined, T and B cell memory can be detected for up to 8 months. Complemented by infection prevention measures a level of around 40-45% immunity in Ischgl significantly reduced local virus transmission during the second wave in Austria in November 2020. Funding: Funding was provided by the government of Tyrol and the FWF Austrian Science Fund.